Ledger / Prediction #1441 · narrative · 24H

Will "simple" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 13% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

31 of 1088 launches in the last hour referenced "simple" (5 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 0.07×.

Made2026-10-11 08:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 08:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 08:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.27368239380765685,
      "momentum": -2.7030791883801895,
      "diversity": -0.7064516129032258
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.13378209221509765
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "simple",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.001937984496124031,
    "share60": 0.028925619834710745,
    "total15": 257,
    "total60": 1088,
    "momentum": 0.06699889258028793,
    "diversity": 0.16129032258064516,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 31,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 159,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9971666666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998819444444444
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.13378209221509765
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 08:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.018

Log loss0.144

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0026330146832080083,
  "shareRatio": 0.4592293808197469,
  "totalAfter": 42157,
  "shareBefore": 0.005748717184406072,
  "totalBefore": 46967,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 111,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 270
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 13% that "simple" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.57% → 0.26% (-54%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "simple" (24H). momentum contributed -2.70 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash2eae2a1b6933b34ea6793d235875c7ab5af47ad09ed129de91c8f869c525f669

Previous hashd79930a5516af1bf4afe5dc7982badf71f9b14b2e591bc8c9b641c20f88110e3