Will "confidence" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 14% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

29 of 1088 launches in the last hour referenced "confidence" (7 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 0.07×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.263678687632856,
      "momentum": -2.637481905894376,
      "diversity": -0.6103448275862068
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.14281863040489404
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "confidence",
    "rank60": 11,
    "share15": 0.001937984496124031,
    "share60": 0.027089072543617997,
    "total15": 257,
    "total60": 1088,
    "momentum": 0.07154119038234136,
    "diversity": 0.2413793103448276,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 29,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 159,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9971666666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998819444444444
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.14281863040489404
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0017079014161349242,
  "shareRatio": 0.40691112467277046,
  "totalAfter": 42157,
  "shareBefore": 0.00421572593523112,
  "totalBefore": 46967,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 72,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 198
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity