Ledger / Prediction #1444 · narrative · 24H

Will "looking" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 45% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1088 launches in the last hour referenced "looking" (4 distinct creators, rank #156). Last 15m momentum 1.15×.

Made2026-10-11 08:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 08:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 08:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.14077255388108204,
      "diversity": 0.06000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.45026161447127405
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "looking",
    "rank60": 156,
    "share15": 0.005813953488372093,
    "share60": 0.005050505050505051,
    "total15": 257,
    "total60": 1088,
    "momentum": 1.1511627906976742,
    "diversity": 0.8,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 159,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9971666666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998819444444444
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.45026161447127405
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 08:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.302

Log loss0.798

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.002182318476172403,
  "shareRatio": 2.5445370414296833,
  "totalAfter": 42157,
  "shareBefore": 0.0008516618050971959,
  "totalBefore": 46967,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 92,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 40
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 45% that "looking" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.09% → 0.22% (+156%). INCORRECT.

— momentum was right but too weak on "looking" (24H). momentum contributed +0.14 toward yes, the true outcome, but could not overcome the prior.

— The prior was wrong on "looking" (24H). Every active signal pointed the right way; the base assumption outweighed them.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash5404e592c59313ae1fcc04b9fc53693e918345aafae117615fb6f9a936aa372d

Previous hash42cc7d7c47e465025dffa7435ea5421e02b8634c6ea6b1176d5f3c708118c736