Ledger / Prediction #1448 · token · 6H

Will $SPACEXSI still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 7% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 28m ago. X link. No hot term.

Made2026-10-11 08:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 14:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 08:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.07280096915005271
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "5HKBRVqSBWRn7akyYFcxJQ2GsrMeCJzZJFr4rnP5pump",
    "name": "SpaceX Super Intelligence",
    "symbol": "SPACEXSI",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 28,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3332.1415911966174,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 345,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.07280096915005271
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 14:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.005

Log loss0.076

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-11T09:48:55.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3057.1797350973447,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3513.078112606688,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3332.1415911966174,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6664.283182393235
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 7% that $SPACEXSI would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,057, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $SPACEXSI (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf6e6a153b45edbadc85e9d3ca1da627f024cd68fe85b3b9c8dfabd3764e68c1b

Previous hasha11637a6b9182fc46d0a93d28f8a303d2ad059c41a90ff12f74495dcdfd15320