Ledger / Prediction #145 · narrative · 1H
Will "quantum" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 57% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
161 of 1861 launches in the last hour referenced "quantum" (100 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 1.26×.
Made2026-10-09 13:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-09 14:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 12:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.5207949678825544,
"momentum": 0.23462017253565398,
"diversity": -0.15465838509316776
},
"rawProbability": 0.5746275015108826
},
"features": {
"term": "quantum",
"rank60": 1,
"share15": 0.10966981132075472,
"share60": 0.08673469387755102,
"total15": 423,
"total60": 1861,
"momentum": 1.2644284128745837,
"diversity": 0.6211180124223602,
"launches15": 46,
"launches60": 161,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 100
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 246,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9965916666666667,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9965916666666667
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5746275015108826
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-09 14:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.330
Log loss0.855
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0484027105517909,
"shareRatio": 0.5598169029809087,
"totalAfter": 2066,
"shareBefore": 0.08663101604278074,
"totalBefore": 1870,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 100,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 162
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 57% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 8.66% → 4.84% (-44%). INCORRECT.
— volume misled on "quantum" (1H). volume contributed +0.52 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
12c5d5b6b6db9f990977b27c531f53e6ff05baf52b7594211c28bc96eb84b93aPrevious hash
d5fd14760115190637cf61afeab3dab583022b60fb3862a6b08b851f11eb3c1a