GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #145 · narrative · 1H

Will "quantum" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 57% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

161 of 1861 launches in the last hour referenced "quantum" (100 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 1.26×.

Made2026-10-09 13:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-09 14:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 12:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.5207949678825544,
      "momentum": 0.23462017253565398,
      "diversity": -0.15465838509316776
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5746275015108826
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "quantum",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.10966981132075472,
    "share60": 0.08673469387755102,
    "total15": 423,
    "total60": 1861,
    "momentum": 1.2644284128745837,
    "diversity": 0.6211180124223602,
    "launches15": 46,
    "launches60": 161,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 100
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 246,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9965916666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9965916666666667
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5746275015108826
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 14:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.330
Log loss0.855
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0484027105517909,
  "shareRatio": 0.5598169029809087,
  "totalAfter": 2066,
  "shareBefore": 0.08663101604278074,
  "totalBefore": 1870,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 100,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 162
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 57% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 8.66% → 4.84% (-44%). INCORRECT.

— volume misled on "quantum" (1H). volume contributed +0.52 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash12c5d5b6b6db9f990977b27c531f53e6ff05baf52b7594211c28bc96eb84b93a
Previous hashd5fd14760115190637cf61afeab3dab583022b60fb3862a6b08b851f11eb3c1a