Ledger / Prediction #1454 · narrative · 6H

Will "dexter" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 45% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

41 of 1173 launches in the last hour referenced "dexter" (16 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 1.29×.

Made2026-10-11 09:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 15:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 08:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3156201231405311,
      "momentum": 0.25480880427171254,
      "diversity": -0.4317073170731707
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.449449577556892
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dexter",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.04560810810810811,
    "share60": 0.03534923339011925,
    "total15": 295,
    "total60": 1173,
    "momentum": 1.2902149137088896,
    "diversity": 0.3902439024390244,
    "launches15": 13,
    "launches60": 41,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 16
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 149,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9937925,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9989654166666667
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.449449577556892
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 15:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.202

Log loss0.597

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00011398609369656902,
  "shareRatio": 0.032791297398392295,
  "totalAfter": 8773,
  "shareBefore": 0.005151400929765046,
  "totalBefore": 7959,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 41
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 45% that "dexter" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.52% → 0.01% (-98%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "dexter" (6H). diversity contributed -0.43 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashd066484efb404a6c515baf0eff6eee7e1414c3c8d116cd04ee9c580de7db7247

Previous hashd40b34e84ea5b27aa4d7b4ed3ab50480d52b7d1e8f3e767be4df4f0cccfde955