Will "watchlist" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 24% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

8 of 1173 launches in the last hour referenced "watchlist" (7 distinct creators, rank #87). Last 15m momentum 0.23×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.07050054438686033,
      "momentum": -1.4554007979922348,
      "diversity": 0.15
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.23786323101925647
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "watchlist",
    "rank60": 87,
    "share15": 0.0016891891891891893,
    "share60": 0.007240204429301534,
    "total15": 295,
    "total60": 1173,
    "momentum": 0.2333068362480127,
    "diversity": 0.875,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 8,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 149,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9937925,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9989654166666667
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.23786323101925647
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00022797218739313804,
  "shareRatio": 0.2668311454967216,
  "totalAfter": 8773,
  "shareBefore": 0.001005151400929765,
  "totalBefore": 7959,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 8
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity