Will "pliq" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 48% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

36 of 1173 launches in the last hour referenced "pliq" (21 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 1.36×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2961121539033014,
      "momentum": 0.306228929783791,
      "diversity": -0.19999999999999996
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.47531272611286807
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pliq",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.04222972972972973,
    "share60": 0.031090289608177172,
    "total15": 295,
    "total60": 1173,
    "momentum": 1.3582932247315809,
    "diversity": 0.5833333333333334,
    "launches15": 12,
    "launches60": 36,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 21
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 149,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9937925,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997413541666667
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.47531272611286807
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00011788838327871171,
  "shareRatio": 0.15803744046777007,
  "totalAfter": 42413,
  "shareBefore": 0.0008098891730605285,
  "totalBefore": 46920,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 5,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 38
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity