Ledger / Prediction #146 · narrative · 1H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 48% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

49 of 1861 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (39 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.84×.

Made2026-10-09 13:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 14:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 12:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34235735785147897,
      "momentum": -0.1710078683630949,
      "diversity": 0.055102040816326525
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.48162116666647464
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.02240566037735849,
    "share60": 0.026584317937701395,
    "total15": 423,
    "total60": 1861,
    "momentum": 0.8428149418715456,
    "diversity": 0.7959183673469388,
    "launches15": 9,
    "launches60": 49,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 39
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 246,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9965916666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9965916666666667
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.48162116666647464
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 14:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.232

Log loss0.657

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.01452081316553727,
  "shareRatio": 0.5577350671690294,
  "totalAfter": 2066,
  "shareBefore": 0.026203208556149733,
  "totalBefore": 1870,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 30,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 49
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 48% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.62% → 1.45% (-45%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "inu" (1H). momentum contributed -0.17 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash2cdf530d9af9b2f447a63a58d7cdb2cf9041ed4bdb306d650ae679fcfcfd7e94

Previous hash12c5d5b6b6db9f990977b27c531f53e6ff05baf52b7594211c28bc96eb84b93a