Will "glyph8192" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 49% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

24 of 1275 launches in the last hour referenced "glyph8192" (19 distinct creators, rank #13). Last 15m momentum 1.22×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.23529238768707678,
      "momentum": 0.19627424376630273,
      "diversity": 0.049999999999999954
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.48520015346011947
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "glyph8192",
    "rank60": 13,
    "share15": 0.02336448598130841,
    "share60": 0.01920062695924765,
    "total15": 320,
    "total60": 1275,
    "momentum": 1.2168605760061033,
    "diversity": 0.7916666666666666,
    "launches15": 7,
    "launches60": 24,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 19
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 158,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9984919444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999371643518519
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.48520015346011947
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00007040931280510702,
  "shareRatio": 0.15651958171144256,
  "totalAfter": 42608,
  "shareBefore": 0.000514105777263672,
  "totalBefore": 46683,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 3,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 24
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity