Ledger / Prediction #1482 · narrative · 1H
Will "fuck" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 35% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
40 of 1194 launches in the last hour referenced "fuck" (3 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.21×.
Made2026-10-11 10:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 11:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 09:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3119162312519754,
"momentum": 0.19079730293703287,
"diversity": -0.81
},
"rawProbability": 0.35267843996240433
},
"features": {
"term": "fuck",
"rank60": 3,
"share15": 0.041015625,
"share60": 0.033891213389121336,
"total15": 255,
"total60": 1194,
"momentum": 1.2102141203703705,
"diversity": 0.075,
"launches15": 10,
"launches60": 40,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 3
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 152,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9952158333333333,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9952158333333333
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.35267843996240433
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 11:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.124
Log loss0.435
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.01059001512859304,
"shareRatio": 0.3244683332866754,
"totalAfter": 1322,
"shareBefore": 0.0333889816360601,
"totalBefore": 1198,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 14,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 40
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 35% that "fuck" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.34% → 1.06% (-68%). CORRECT.
— diversity pointed the right way on "fuck" (1H). diversity contributed -0.81 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
1324231e2d2ca87899b1fe5a4ff6614bf812ff516e1e21c7f40ca56d447dba84Previous hash
8db63db364f9a90b797758bc5b78327937b20f1fda7a1752b188579ca689b493