Ledger / Prediction #1484 · narrative · 1H
Will "meet" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 50% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
7 of 1194 launches in the last hour referenced "meet" (7 distinct creators, rank #95). Last 15m momentum 0.93×.
Made2026-10-11 10:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 11:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 09:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.050470835493181924,
"momentum": -0.06871389254805181,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.49543936222073887
},
"features": {
"term": "meet",
"rank60": 95,
"share15": 0.005859375,
"share60": 0.006276150627615063,
"total15": 255,
"total60": 1194,
"momentum": 0.93359375,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 1,
"launches60": 7,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 7
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 152,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9952158333333333,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9952158333333333
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.49543936222073887
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 11:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.245
Log loss0.684
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0045385779122541605,
"shareRatio": 0.7854371378180902,
"totalAfter": 1322,
"shareBefore": 0.005843071786310518,
"totalBefore": 1198,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 6,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 7
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 50% that "meet" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.58% → 0.45% (-22%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "meet" (1H). momentum contributed -0.07 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
da5f78d1257e697747db8f3c1984afd34d3f4994fed569e2be30bf83acbb7ff3Previous hash
06c2d844c9b067d0384b5ce81b9f9c2052e102cf5ed7592f6bf3a2772fe7a932