Ledger / Prediction #1485 · narrative · 6H

Will "normie" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 59% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

60 of 1194 launches in the last hour referenced "normie" (43 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.81×.

Made2026-10-11 10:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 16:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 09:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3727359974682,
      "momentum": 0.5950810759993661,
      "diversity": -0.03999999999999999
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5864895226599055
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "normie",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.091796875,
    "share60": 0.050627615062761505,
    "total15": 255,
    "total60": 1194,
    "momentum": 1.813177944214876,
    "diversity": 0.7166666666666667,
    "launches15": 23,
    "launches60": 60,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 43
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 152,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9952158333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9992026388888889
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5864895226599055
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 16:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.344

Log loss0.883

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.004820792286732341,
  "shareRatio": 0.5716287786979466,
  "totalAfter": 9542,
  "shareBefore": 0.008460236886632826,
  "totalBefore": 7683,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 46,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 65
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 59% that "normie" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.85% → 0.48% (-43%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "normie" (6H). momentum contributed +0.60 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash4d2fa42a3d3fbfe5b97210f6c04fbfd5a14504616798b8cd5549820639e80146

Previous hashda5f78d1257e697747db8f3c1984afd34d3f4994fed569e2be30bf83acbb7ff3