GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1486 · narrative · 6H

Will "fuck" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 37% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

40 of 1194 launches in the last hour referenced "fuck" (3 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.21×.

Made2026-10-11 10:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 16:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 09:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3119162312519754,
      "momentum": 0.19079730293703287,
      "diversity": -0.81
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.37399860640553195
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "fuck",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.041015625,
    "share60": 0.033891213389121336,
    "total15": 255,
    "total60": 1194,
    "momentum": 1.2102141203703705,
    "diversity": 0.075,
    "launches15": 10,
    "launches60": 40,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 152,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9952158333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9992026388888889
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.37399860640553195
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 16:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.140
Log loss0.468
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0038775937958499267,
  "shareRatio": 0.4282965569059197,
  "totalAfter": 9542,
  "shareBefore": 0.009111024339450735,
  "totalBefore": 7683,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 37,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 70
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 37% that "fuck" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.91% → 0.39% (-57%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "fuck" (6H). diversity contributed -0.81 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashd7cc0489f193931e57529c48d280c0ac0b70a7c613d1154c069eb751415c2004
Previous hash4d2fa42a3d3fbfe5b97210f6c04fbfd5a14504616798b8cd5549820639e80146