GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1489 · narrative · 24H

Will "normie" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 54% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

60 of 1194 launches in the last hour referenced "normie" (43 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.81×.

Made2026-10-11 10:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 10:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 09:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3727359974682,
      "momentum": 0.5950810759993661,
      "diversity": -0.03999999999999999
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5408856389840192
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "normie",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.091796875,
    "share60": 0.050627615062761505,
    "total15": 255,
    "total60": 1194,
    "momentum": 1.813177944214876,
    "diversity": 0.7166666666666667,
    "launches15": 23,
    "launches60": 60,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 43
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 152,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9952158333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998006597222222
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5408856389840192
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 10:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.211
Log loss0.615
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.002872087049922944,
  "shareRatio": 1.9046293292476226,
  "totalAfter": 42826,
  "shareBefore": 0.0015033395614543737,
  "totalBefore": 46563,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 123,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 70
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 54% that "normie" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.15% → 0.29% (+91%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "normie" (24H). momentum contributed +0.60 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf085855afd0a96c2a2cdc4b712788298f0a9f411e8c02fd1042f44c4fe7063c4
Previous hash5cc13c99392e02cd4b4616227eab3363b4d6ad78525a227eed4881cead59f5fa