Ledger / Prediction #1498 · narrative · 1H
Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 57% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
39 of 1207 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (29 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.31×.
Made2026-10-11 10:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 11:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 10:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3081185600543319,
"momentum": 0.2705377532064347,
"diversity": -0.007692307692307665
},
"rawProbability": 0.5673295516029484
},
"features": {
"term": "cat",
"rank60": 3,
"share15": 0.04285714285714286,
"share60": 0.03269867549668874,
"total15": 314,
"total60": 1207,
"momentum": 1.3106690777576853,
"diversity": 0.7435897435897436,
"launches15": 13,
"launches60": 39,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 29
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 151,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9918608333333333,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9918608333333333
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5673295516029484
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 11:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.187
Log loss0.567
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.033215547703180213,
"shareRatio": 1.0326825430880355,
"totalAfter": 1415,
"shareBefore": 0.03209876543209877,
"totalBefore": 1215,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 47,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 39
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 57% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.21% → 3.32% (+3%). PARTIAL.
— "cat" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
235c52e681938c7620b95473099203fa5df6cf484945d2c3eadd3d76f6e0eee0Previous hash
a49b86aa5271c9aa7f1329f98533de70cffab35fd8a811a422292ba12fd15e3b