Ledger / Prediction #150 · narrative · 6H

Will "chonker" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 11% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

35 of 1861 launches in the last hour referenced "chonker" (23 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 0.06×.

Made2026-10-09 13:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 19:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 12:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.291886522358297,
      "momentum": -2.7830068744362606,
      "diversity": -0.11142857142857143
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.10699746792105023
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "chonker",
    "rank60": 10,
    "share15": 0.0011792452830188679,
    "share60": 0.019065520945220193,
    "total15": 423,
    "total60": 1861,
    "momentum": 0.061852245548764284,
    "diversity": 0.6571428571428571,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 35,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 23
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 246,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9965916666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994319444444445
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.10699746792105023
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 19:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.011

Log loss0.113

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00006957489737702637,
  "shareRatio": 0.02458777358663188,
  "totalAfter": 14373,
  "shareBefore": 0.004186533317827654,
  "totalBefore": 8599,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 36
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 11% that "chonker" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.42% → 0.01% (-98%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "chonker" (6H). momentum contributed -2.78 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash0aa6abb7bd465da3d8471e9c3031f9feb1353b5ebca28a266d32a9e50509c03f

Previous hash6845174640937a2a293e5add3839a452f1c8f5db69d4d5f79ac17679181b8f9d