GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1500 · narrative · 1H

Will "future" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 76% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1207 launches in the last hour referenced "future" (5 distinct creators, rank #138). Last 15m momentum 3.14×.

Made2026-10-11 10:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 11:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 10:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 1.143478044206976,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7583176396735718
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "future",
    "rank60": 138,
    "share15": 0.014285714285714285,
    "share60": 0.004552980132450331,
    "total15": 314,
    "total60": 1207,
    "momentum": 3.137662337662338,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 151,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918608333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9918608333333333
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7583176396735718
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 11:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.058
Log loss0.277
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.004240282685512367,
  "shareRatio": 1.014894709809964,
  "totalAfter": 1415,
  "shareBefore": 0.00411522633744856,
  "totalBefore": 1215,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 6,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 5
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 76% that "future" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.41% → 0.42% (+3%). PARTIAL.

— "future" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash52701db0b5cee70984e255e8fabf6165a7c4f69f8a379fcd6be6c5783b478157
Previous hash9bbb08f610d5ddbca7c0e824b38fc566267dcf16f1016cb12c315ac533707dc9