GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1503 · narrative · 6H

Will "jareth" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 53% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

19 of 1207 launches in the last hour referenced "jareth" (14 distinct creators, rank #13). Last 15m momentum 1.47×.

Made2026-10-11 10:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 16:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 10:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.200250160009851,
      "momentum": 0.3886372946416909,
      "diversity": -0.015789473684210575
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5252705964576142
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "jareth",
    "rank60": 13,
    "share15": 0.023809523809523808,
    "share60": 0.016142384105960264,
    "total15": 314,
    "total60": 1207,
    "momentum": 1.474969474969475,
    "diversity": 0.7368421052631579,
    "launches15": 7,
    "launches60": 19,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 14
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 151,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918608333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9986434722222223
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5252705964576142
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 16:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.276
Log loss0.745
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0001003814495081309,
  "shareRatio": 0.05894115921216193,
  "totalAfter": 9962,
  "shareBefore": 0.0024891916677584175,
  "totalBefore": 7633,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 19
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 53% that "jareth" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.25% → 0.01% (-96%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "jareth" (6H). momentum contributed +0.39 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashce30f56202d859d8f3c85671762884d6282777467c0bed8b01ad999e9b872dcf
Previous hashb2a02121f75343b7f3113cee4473bdcd5a2443dce42fea0d89ce3e5b016b4334