Will "trencher" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 39% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

21 of 1207 launches in the last hour referenced "trencher" (15 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 0.62×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.21526267879339842,
      "momentum": -0.47114122696912186,
      "diversity": -0.04285714285714284
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3895110769511963
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "trencher",
    "rank60": 11,
    "share15": 0.011111111111111112,
    "share60": 0.017798013245033113,
    "total15": 314,
    "total60": 1207,
    "momentum": 0.6242894056847546,
    "diversity": 0.7142857142857143,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 21,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 15
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 151,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918608333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996608680555555
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3895110769511963
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.002371762079709808,
  "shareRatio": 1.8261451576112826,
  "totalAfter": 43006,
  "shareBefore": 0.0012943587531010678,
  "totalBefore": 46355,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 102,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 60
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity