Will "bitcoin" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 49% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

34 of 1861 launches in the last hour referenced "bitcoin" (22 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 1.21×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.28753839182730917,
      "momentum": 0.1900054771742358,
      "diversity": -0.12352941176470583
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.48695549075037126
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "bitcoin",
    "rank60": 11,
    "share15": 0.02240566037735849,
    "share60": 0.01852846401718582,
    "total15": 423,
    "total60": 1861,
    "momentum": 1.2092562209461308,
    "diversity": 0.6470588235294118,
    "launches15": 9,
    "launches60": 34,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 22
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 246,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9965916666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994319444444445
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.48695549075037126
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.007514088916718848,
  "shareRatio": 1.0386531236955614,
  "totalAfter": 14373,
  "shareBefore": 0.007210140714036516,
  "totalBefore": 8599,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 108,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 62
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity