Ledger / Prediction #1516 · narrative · 1H

Will "found" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 17% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 1315 launches in the last hour referenced "found" (4 distinct creators, rank #117). Last 15m momentum 0.30×.

Made2026-10-11 11:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 12:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 10:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": -1.1967277774013405,
      "diversity": -0.10000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.1723048606484417
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "found",
    "rank60": 117,
    "share15": 0.0014925373134328358,
    "share60": 0.004939209726443769,
    "total15": 334,
    "total60": 1315,
    "momentum": 0.3021814006888634,
    "diversity": 0.6666666666666666,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 155,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968775,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9968775
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.1723048606484417
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 12:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.030

Log loss0.189

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0022692889561270802,
  "shareRatio": 0.5384615384615384,
  "totalAfter": 1322,
  "shareBefore": 0.0045385779122541605,
  "totalBefore": 1322,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 3,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 6
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 17% that "found" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.45% → 0.23% (-50%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "found" (1H). momentum contributed -1.20 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash75bcad1dd43bee0ca40ae947627cf13a38428a9658e9b22df0aa8ddffaa2cff4

Previous hash6dafca51c5527328f36f5406d5d30bf4559258bda1b4f061767bfee387493578