GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1519 · narrative · 6H

Will "crypto" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 66% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

29 of 1315 launches in the last hour referenced "crypto" (25 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 2.60×.

Made2026-10-11 11:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 17:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 10:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.263678687632856,
      "momentum": 0.954245782284123,
      "diversity": 0.1344827586206896
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6562630601912801
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "crypto",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.058208955223880594,
    "share60": 0.022416413373860182,
    "total15": 334,
    "total60": 1315,
    "momentum": 2.5967113584619277,
    "diversity": 0.8620689655172413,
    "launches15": 19,
    "launches60": 29,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 25
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 155,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968775,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994795833333333
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6562630601912801
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 17:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.118
Log loss0.421
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.01495398773006135,
  "shareRatio": 1.3489904671580226,
  "totalAfter": 10432,
  "shareBefore": 0.011056191467221643,
  "totalBefore": 7688,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 156,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 85
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 66% that "crypto" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.11% → 1.50% (+35%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "crypto" (6H). momentum contributed +0.95 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha22847699124ca5e8ae03480dc0323f6d095cc001748235c71314fa13069dbb9
Previous hash7d3be97138f6eeefb4100736caa078fddd6dd92d4f89c264f07d83c17d5a020c