Ledger / Prediction #1524 · narrative · 24H

Will "four" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 31% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1315 launches in the last hour referenced "four" (4 distinct creators, rank #160). Last 15m momentum 0.36×.

Made2026-10-11 11:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 11:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 10:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": -1.0296736927381744,
      "diversity": 0.06000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3132783723486494
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "four",
    "rank60": 160,
    "share15": 0.0014925373134328358,
    "share60": 0.004179331306990881,
    "total15": 334,
    "total60": 1315,
    "momentum": 0.357123473541384,
    "diversity": 0.8,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 155,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968775,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998698958333333
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3132783723486494
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 11:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationPARTIAL

Brier0.098

Log loss0.376

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0010905631482469778,
  "shareRatio": 0.919005459587389,
  "totalAfter": 43097,
  "shareBefore": 0.001188495364868077,
  "totalBefore": 46277,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 47,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 55
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 31% that "four" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.12% → 0.11% (-8%). PARTIAL.

— "four" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash3c6253254174a5aeb9121a1cbabb307626fa9e09c0f75049e894cdf58bc3f2f9

Previous hash4c6ba935e5139ecd0786831e5a959e3fe307cc83fa7afbb2e78f5a772d9ba2e3