GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1530 · narrative · 1H

Will "dacity" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 79% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

59 of 1405 launches in the last hour referenced "dacity" (34 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 4.44×.

Made2026-10-11 11:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 12:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 11:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3702149297207429,
      "momentum": 1.49072760566995,
      "diversity": -0.2084745762711864
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7945328164328094
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dacity",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.18790849673202614,
    "share60": 0.042318634423897585,
    "total15": 305,
    "total60": 1405,
    "momentum": 4.44032514966771,
    "diversity": 0.576271186440678,
    "launches15": 57,
    "launches60": 59,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 34
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 162,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932775,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9932775
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7945328164328094
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 12:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.631
Log loss1.582
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.028149190710767064,
  "shareRatio": 0.655757949984563,
  "totalAfter": 1421,
  "shareBefore": 0.0431095406360424,
  "totalBefore": 1415,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 40,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 61
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 79% that "dacity" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.31% → 2.81% (-35%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "dacity" (1H). momentum contributed +1.49 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

— Overconfident: 79% and wrong on "dacity". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash585906f9dc2a5ecf007e0b3efcefffabb05e9872496c78b103d84b02f1a8382c
Previous hashfddcdf8e6bcb914ce5154959a3d6f365d07e4fe9a76a773df129666e22239ec9