Will "stallion" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 11% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

16 of 1405 launches in the last hour referenced "stallion" (12 distinct creators, rank #28). Last 15m momentum 0.14×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.17447262147085213,
      "momentum": -1.971588591048251,
      "diversity": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.10937744986086721
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "stallion",
    "rank60": 28,
    "share15": 0.0016339869281045752,
    "share60": 0.011735419630156473,
    "total15": 305,
    "total60": 1405,
    "momentum": 0.13923549217666864,
    "diversity": 0.75,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 16,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 12
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 162,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932775,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9932775
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.10937744986086721
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00211118930330753,
  "shareRatio": 0.21122618590973022,
  "totalAfter": 1421,
  "shareBefore": 0.011307420494699646,
  "totalBefore": 1415,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 3,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 16
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity