GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1536 · narrative · 6H

Will "network" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 58% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 1405 launches in the last hour referenced "network" (6 distinct creators, rank #139). Last 15m momentum 1.77×.

Made2026-10-11 11:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 17:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 11:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": 0.5694075253907931,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5812067127818306
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "network",
    "rank60": 139,
    "share15": 0.008169934640522876,
    "share60": 0.004623044096728307,
    "total15": 305,
    "total60": 1405,
    "momentum": 1.767219708396179,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 162,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932775,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988795833333334
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5812067127818306
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 17:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.338
Log loss0.870
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0035306141410387437,
  "shareRatio": 0.9745040322843527,
  "totalAfter": 10763,
  "shareBefore": 0.0036063884595569293,
  "totalBefore": 7764,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 38,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 28
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 58% that "network" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.36% → 0.35% (-2%). PARTIAL.

— "network" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash72cf20c53fad919ff77efd5f2f11ec8bf214baccbe48851ddedacb12163e5e13
Previous hash9bd9be8bc73aa6bb779237c38e0f9025074c6c2927003e0397e8e18f4464e8d9