Ledger / Prediction #154 · token · 6H

Will $SPS still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 11% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 30m ago. X link. Rides hot term "chain".

Made2026-10-09 13:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 19:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 12:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.11461549863791243
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "GeDqWuEdpxfmgJPJstGrJKAdm2Gg4FgvotzZhy51pump",
    "name": "SolPumpSol",
    "symbol": "SPS",
    "hotTerms": [
      "chain"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 30,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 201,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3126.118849442569,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 625,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.11461549863791243
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 19:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.013

Log loss0.122

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-09T18:32:43.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 2995.8923717855796,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3126.118849442569,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3126.118849442569,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6252.237698885138
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 11% that $SPS would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $2,996, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $SPS (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash78cba9fd5da7b323011e08c9c727c8da33b17dd26db97c35a8bd6dc5367fd345

Previous hash54d0cc0121c51163df9d9e1e214a6567575a95b179c05f8a50c1d7247fd0327c