Ledger / Prediction #1540 · narrative · 24H
Will "meet" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 51% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
8 of 1405 launches in the last hour referenced "meet" (8 distinct creators, rank #91). Last 15m momentum 1.35×.
Made2026-10-11 11:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 11:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 11:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.07050054438686033,
"momentum": 0.3011435387961137,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.5089545528642369
},
"features": {
"term": "meet",
"rank60": 91,
"share15": 0.008169934640522876,
"share60": 0.00604551920341394,
"total15": 305,
"total60": 1405,
"momentum": 1.3514033064206075,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 2,
"launches60": 8,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 8
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 162,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9932775,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997198958333333
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5089545528642369
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 11:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.241
Log loss0.675
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.005203296956301515,
"shareRatio": 1.0113872170734408,
"totalAfter": 43434,
"shareBefore": 0.005145278450363196,
"totalBefore": 46256,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 226,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 238
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 51% that "meet" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.51% → 0.52% (+1%). PARTIAL.
— "meet" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
e9b6a0b10deefcb6cb01f9521e9f0c9ade726aade8bdc376ed0c1551db259ec1Previous hash
b2c84c957c37fb96ab20b044545045bbfcfb8fd5f8b9a1672af3667e923677d0