Ledger / Prediction #1548 · narrative · 1H

Will "roadmap" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 15% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 1317 launches in the last hour referenced "roadmap" (4 distinct creators, rank #119). Last 15m momentum 0.28×.

Made2026-10-11 12:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 13:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 11:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": -1.2639723982189917,
      "diversity": -0.21428571428571433
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.15087083014907962
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "roadmap",
    "rank60": 119,
    "share15": 0.001607717041800643,
    "share60": 0.005690440060698027,
    "total15": 310,
    "total60": 1317,
    "momentum": 0.282529474812433,
    "diversity": 0.5714285714285714,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 174,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9982819444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9982819444444444
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.15087083014907962
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 13:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.023

Log loss0.164

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0030048076923076925,
  "shareRatio": 0.5827027027027026,
  "totalAfter": 1664,
  "shareBefore": 0.00529500756429652,
  "totalBefore": 1322,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 5,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 7
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 15% that "roadmap" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.53% → 0.30% (-43%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "roadmap" (1H). momentum contributed -1.26 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha7cc3a04276249086d9410b3ebe68d055739949770ebeb7ffcc24d144b68a75d

Previous hash8cdfa94bf785e277d8b80da909b1ff9f8d97ffdc8a94548ef21164204265363f