Will "darwin" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 25% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

10 of 1317 launches in the last hour referenced "darwin" (7 distinct creators, rank #50). Last 15m momentum 0.20×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.1039720770839918,
      "momentum": -1.6004446348402046,
      "diversity": -0.06000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.25383992959155055
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "darwin",
    "rank60": 50,
    "share15": 0.001607717041800643,
    "share60": 0.007966616084977238,
    "total15": 310,
    "total60": 1317,
    "momentum": 0.20180676772316644,
    "diversity": 0.7,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 10,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 174,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9982819444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999284143518519
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.25383992959155055
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.000022832092789625095,
  "shareRatio": 0.13700134110665618,
  "totalAfter": 43798,
  "shareBefore": 0.00023911484033649978,
  "totalBefore": 46003,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 11
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity