Ledger / Prediction #1558 · token · 6H

Will $bndt still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 23m ago. No social links. No hot term.

Made2026-10-11 12:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 18:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 11:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05000000000000001
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "AfTaTCB1aLP9CsCLHZgyXUPNhP7wRqnFGFu7JRXwpump",
    "name": "Bandit",
    "symbol": "bndt",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 23,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 15,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 2733.837677850496,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 358,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.05000000000000001
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 18:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeSUSTAINED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.902

Log loss2.996

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": true,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-11T11:55:09.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 60.551501314468794,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 5469.00832272798,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 2733.837677850496,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 5467.675355700992
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that $bndt would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: SUSTAINED (market cap $61, graduated). INCORRECT.

— The prior was wrong on $bndt (6H). No signal was active; the prediction rested on the base assumption alone.

— Overconfident: 95% and wrong on $bndt. Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash8784e9014aba499fda417554b372c8b3884108f5846e5eb5b43baa66a7cdf5b0

Previous hashd642264880e8397d5e75594660a4358abedd40b29fe40dbf6c0a17f72beaa439