Ledger / Prediction #1564 · narrative · 1H
Will "degen" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 56% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
5 of 1409 launches in the last hour referenced "degen" (4 distinct creators, rank #167). Last 15m momentum 1.64×.
Made2026-10-11 12:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 13:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 12:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0,
"momentum": 0.494180063022578,
"diversity": 0.06000000000000005
},
"rawProbability": 0.5632050880344033
},
"features": {
"term": "degen",
"rank60": 167,
"share15": 0.00639386189258312,
"share60": 0.003900709219858156,
"total15": 390,
"total60": 1409,
"momentum": 1.6391536851894908,
"diversity": 0.8,
"launches15": 2,
"launches60": 5,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 4
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 185,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9951972222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9951972222222222
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5632050880344033
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 13:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.317
Log loss0.828
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.001890359168241966,
"shareRatio": 0.5698419967941378,
"totalAfter": 1587,
"shareBefore": 0.003518648838845883,
"totalBefore": 1421,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 3,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 5
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 56% that "degen" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.35% → 0.19% (-46%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "degen" (1H). momentum contributed +0.49 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
6b8c6273046f7c1af750a1fcb3630d30cf5929e83c4d0fa93637df20f3ef76b1Previous hash
59b2c6fa497b291e93b9cad0f053980b824329c0115a0a9e80081037913f4372