Ledger / Prediction #1565 · narrative · 6H
Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 53% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
46 of 1409 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (31 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 1.43×.
Made2026-10-11 12:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 18:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 12:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3328805226082492,
"momentum": 0.3609558428778168,
"diversity": -0.09130434782608696
},
"rawProbability": 0.530405539942138
},
"features": {
"term": "inu",
"rank60": 7,
"share15": 0.04731457800511509,
"share60": 0.03297872340425532,
"total15": 390,
"total60": 1409,
"momentum": 1.434700107251877,
"diversity": 0.6739130434782609,
"launches15": 18,
"launches60": 46,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 31
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 185,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9951972222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.999199537037037
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.530405539942138
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 18:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.221
Log loss0.634
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.01921921921921922,
"shareRatio": 1.3447466125460799,
"totalAfter": 11655,
"shareBefore": 0.014259787399533316,
"totalBefore": 7714,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 224,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 110
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 53% that "inu" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.43% → 1.92% (+35%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "inu" (6H). momentum contributed +0.36 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
5563d7906ad8bcf2a685b23f0437efdd387a4ada11e5129f8edc5aa1157eb42cPrevious hash
6b8c6273046f7c1af750a1fcb3630d30cf5929e83c4d0fa93637df20f3ef76b1