Ledger / Prediction #1566 · narrative · 6H
Will "god" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 58% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
32 of 1409 launches in the last hour referenced "god" (20 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 2.16×.
Made2026-10-11 12:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 18:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 12:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.27844469855484394,
"momentum": 0.7718117996208576,
"diversity": -0.15
},
"rawProbability": 0.5818030631705384
},
"features": {
"term": "god",
"rank60": 11,
"share15": 0.049872122762148335,
"share60": 0.02304964539007092,
"total15": 390,
"total60": 1409,
"momentum": 2.163682864450128,
"diversity": 0.625,
"launches15": 19,
"launches60": 32,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 20
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 185,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9951972222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.999199537037037
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5818030631705384
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 18:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.338
Log loss0.872
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0018876018876018876,
"shareRatio": 0.3971345229924503,
"totalAfter": 11655,
"shareBefore": 0.004796473943479388,
"totalBefore": 7714,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 22,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 37
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 58% that "god" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.48% → 0.19% (-61%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "god" (6H). momentum contributed +0.77 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
573f07b5166098f5c4ee733602e660c09ff6c753ae21e1d142a30865b797c563Previous hash
5563d7906ad8bcf2a685b23f0437efdd387a4ada11e5129f8edc5aa1157eb42c