Will "dog" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 49% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

31 of 1409 launches in the last hour referenced "dog" (27 distinct creators, rank #12). Last 15m momentum 0.97×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.27368239380765685,
      "momentum": -0.027283958948468506,
      "diversity": 0.14516129032258066
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.49352331418396717
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dog",
    "rank60": 12,
    "share15": 0.021739130434782608,
    "share60": 0.022340425531914895,
    "total15": 390,
    "total60": 1409,
    "momentum": 0.9730848861283643,
    "diversity": 0.8709677419354839,
    "launches15": 8,
    "launches60": 31,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 27
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 185,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9951972222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999199537037037
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.49352331418396717
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.016302016302016303,
  "shareRatio": 1.218262908696647,
  "totalAfter": 11655,
  "shareBefore": 0.013352346383199378,
  "totalBefore": 7714,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 190,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 103
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity