Ledger / Prediction #1568 · narrative · 6H
Will "squeeze" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 50% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
12 of 1409 launches in the last hour referenced "squeeze" (12 distinct creators, rank #45). Last 15m momentum 1.01×.
Made2026-10-11 12:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 18:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 12:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.13132031060308497,
"momentum": 0.009671747573960627,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.502173596488556
},
"features": {
"term": "squeeze",
"rank60": 45,
"share15": 0.008951406649616368,
"share60": 0.008865248226950355,
"total15": 390,
"total60": 1409,
"momentum": 1.0097186700767262,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 3,
"launches60": 12,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 12
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 185,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9951972222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.999199537037037
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.502173596488556
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 18:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.252
Log loss0.698
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.002917202917202917,
"shareRatio": 0.861706983851543,
"totalAfter": 11655,
"shareBefore": 0.0033704952035260565,
"totalBefore": 7714,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 34,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 26
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 50% that "squeeze" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.34% → 0.29% (-13%). INCORRECT.
— diversity misled on "squeeze" (6H). diversity contributed +0.30 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
6f4876f6f2954f758037178d0291facdd78bb0b289feef109017177a6926a098Previous hash
5f8f866ea8236e4b226d464dff7dfb8b37190834e8fc424c82ff36e140837328