GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1568 · narrative · 6H

Will "squeeze" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 50% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

12 of 1409 launches in the last hour referenced "squeeze" (12 distinct creators, rank #45). Last 15m momentum 1.01×.

Made2026-10-11 12:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 18:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 12:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.13132031060308497,
      "momentum": 0.009671747573960627,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.502173596488556
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "squeeze",
    "rank60": 45,
    "share15": 0.008951406649616368,
    "share60": 0.008865248226950355,
    "total15": 390,
    "total60": 1409,
    "momentum": 1.0097186700767262,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 12,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 12
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 185,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9951972222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999199537037037
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.502173596488556
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 18:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.252
Log loss0.698
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.002917202917202917,
  "shareRatio": 0.861706983851543,
  "totalAfter": 11655,
  "shareBefore": 0.0033704952035260565,
  "totalBefore": 7714,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 34,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 26
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 50% that "squeeze" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.34% → 0.29% (-13%). INCORRECT.

— diversity misled on "squeeze" (6H). diversity contributed +0.30 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash6f4876f6f2954f758037178d0291facdd78bb0b289feef109017177a6926a098
Previous hash5f8f866ea8236e4b226d464dff7dfb8b37190834e8fc424c82ff36e140837328