Ledger / Prediction #157 · narrative · 1H

Will "dog" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 34% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

40 of 1840 launches in the last hour referenced "dog" (26 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.57×.

Made2026-10-09 13:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 14:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 13:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3119162312519754,
      "momentum": -0.5675345760878363,
      "diversity": -0.11999999999999997
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3372399431863733
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dog",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.012471655328798186,
    "share60": 0.021998913633894623,
    "total15": 440,
    "total60": 1840,
    "momentum": 0.5669214187732706,
    "diversity": 0.65,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 40,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 26
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 315,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9940847222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9940847222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3372399431863733
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 14:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.114

Log loss0.411

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.018393898609241812,
  "shareRatio": 0.8491612688922106,
  "totalAfter": 2229,
  "shareBefore": 0.02165674066053059,
  "totalBefore": 1847,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 41,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 40
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 34% that "dog" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.17% → 1.84% (-15%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "dog" (1H). momentum contributed -0.57 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash8b419e64834971fa99ae80399df6be54e4f62841b904d4a3db375dc5899339d1

Previous hash5dd1950f59028f2e3b753a37ad652ce2c4c0f173192ab0fbe4e23992b644d1de