GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1575 · token · 1H

Will $STUTUTU still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 3% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 25m ago. No social links. Rides hot term "money". Creator launched 85 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-11 12:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 13:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 12:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginetoken-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.030935134330467174
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "DmMDsyJckxLGczRkaAeiKzji72SJJ1g75eZGCnRopump",
    "name": "IS THAT A SUPRA",
    "symbol": "STUTUTU",
    "hotTerms": [
      "money"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 25,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 18,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 1137.287311939589,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 85
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 538,
  "calibration": null
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.030935134330467174
}
Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 13:30 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.001
Log loss0.031
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-11T12:05:11.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 1137.255434769016,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3115.8717740881775,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 1137.287311939589,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 5000
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 3% that $STUTUTU would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $1,137, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $STUTUTU (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashe270dfdc502432485b13b6a309191cc4457d17ad5131ada2d8ee762d0cab03a4
Previous hashd3516475c1c5e6c79dc0717b82b8c46214d4c35392eeb3779cae3655232b3221