Will "artificial" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 36% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
9 of 1662 launches in the last hour referenced "artificial" (7 distinct creators, rank #61). Last 15m momentum 0.68×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.08816799973531786,
"momentum": -0.38009076389312996,
"diversity": 0.03333333333333335
},
"rawProbability": 0.36387390098556005
},
"features": {
"term": "artificial",
"rank60": 61,
"share15": 0.00390625,
"share60": 0.005712567648827421,
"total15": 383,
"total60": 1662,
"momentum": 0.6837993421052632,
"diversity": 0.7777777777777778,
"launches15": 1,
"launches60": 9,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 7
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 202,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9999277777777777,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999277777777777
}{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.36387390098556005
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.002758620689655172,
"shareRatio": 0.5435452863723748,
"totalAfter": 1450,
"shareBefore": 0.005408653846153846,
"totalBefore": 1664,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 4,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 9
}Predicted 36% that "artificial" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.54% → 0.28% (-49%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "artificial" (1H). momentum contributed -0.38 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
f150b637375da122c62bf79786605779532b34a5cc75d3afe9ee01264840ff52bdba821e84dd701701185b0d3672871df5a8f712f07d0006585293e17fbea143