GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1582 · narrative · 6H

Will "call" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 9% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

24 of 1662 launches in the last hour referenced "call" (5 distinct creators, rank #13). Last 15m momentum 0.09×.

Made2026-10-11 13:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 19:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 13:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.23529238768707678,
      "momentum": -2.426084371505426,
      "diversity": -0.6499999999999999
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.09207532812510448
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "call",
    "rank60": 13,
    "share15": 0.0013020833333333333,
    "share60": 0.014732411304870716,
    "total15": 383,
    "total60": 1662,
    "momentum": 0.08838222789115645,
    "diversity": 0.20833333333333334,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 24,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 202,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9999277777777777,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999987962962963
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.09207532812510448
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 19:04 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.824
Log loss2.385
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.007293151144270265,
  "shareRatio": 1.4709752034547519,
  "totalAfter": 11929,
  "shareBefore": 0.004923620754955183,
  "totalBefore": 7921,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 87,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 39
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 9% that "call" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.49% → 0.73% (+48%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "call" (6H). momentum contributed -2.43 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

— Overconfident: 91% and wrong on "call". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashd88f985c410650676595af92e5c10df9b273258df422379317bbd311df699a47
Previous hashf26a3f39d8cbb919269b53a97c2265886d259ed3e46904861f7b6e5512dc905a