Will "call" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 9% → FADES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
24 of 1662 launches in the last hour referenced "call" (5 distinct creators, rank #13). Last 15m momentum 0.09×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.23529238768707678,
"momentum": -2.426084371505426,
"diversity": -0.6499999999999999
},
"rawProbability": 0.09207532812510448
},
"features": {
"term": "call",
"rank60": 13,
"share15": 0.0013020833333333333,
"share60": 0.014732411304870716,
"total15": 383,
"total60": 1662,
"momentum": 0.08838222789115645,
"diversity": 0.20833333333333334,
"launches15": 0,
"launches60": 24,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 5
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 202,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9999277777777777,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.999987962962963
}{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.09207532812510448
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.007293151144270265,
"shareRatio": 1.4709752034547519,
"totalAfter": 11929,
"shareBefore": 0.004923620754955183,
"totalBefore": 7921,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 87,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 39
}Predicted 9% that "call" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.49% → 0.73% (+48%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "call" (6H). momentum contributed -2.43 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.
— Overconfident: 91% and wrong on "call". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.
2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
d88f985c410650676595af92e5c10df9b273258df422379317bbd311df699a47f26a3f39d8cbb919269b53a97c2265886d259ed3e46904861f7b6e5512dc905a