Will "yilong" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 49% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

52 of 1662 launches in the last hour referenced "yilong" (34 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 1.36×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.351270870922099,
      "momentum": 0.30828313791415785,
      "diversity": -0.11538461538461536
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.49302162734187677
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "yilong",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.04296875,
    "share60": 0.03156945279615153,
    "total15": 383,
    "total60": 1662,
    "momentum": 1.3610863095238097,
    "diversity": 0.6538461538461539,
    "launches15": 16,
    "launches60": 52,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 34
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 202,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9999277777777777,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999969907407408
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.49302162734187677
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00006809669731018046,
  "shareRatio": 0.06038557988555513,
  "totalAfter": 44055,
  "shareBefore": 0.0013047732956398825,
  "totalBefore": 45985,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 3,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 60
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity