Ledger / Prediction #16 · token · 6H

Will $XPOLOZ still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 22m ago. No social links. No hot term.

Made2026-10-09 06:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 12:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 05:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05000000000000001
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "FaSTJU53hMg7Q7qJ34d8Big9YqF1NqRGAKkesAunpump",
    "name": "Iboyxjioqmcpwty",
    "symbol": "XPOLOZ",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 22,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3093.3175838741977,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 475,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.05000000000000001
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 12:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.051

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-09T05:38:08.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3093.3175838741977,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 4151.97904354476,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3093.3175838741977,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6186.635167748395
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that $XPOLOZ would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,093, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $XPOLOZ (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash0b24fdab1a02c2764313ac6868fb2601e29d27a8ab908857d1d6740230194eb1

Previous hashf7dc573d39bd345cbf228a230b8ea63501643b3ab131eac2b0e8f3d855c46742