GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1600 · narrative · 6H

Will "tits" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 64% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1582 launches in the last hour referenced "tits" (3 distinct creators, rank #212). Last 15m momentum 4.10×.

Made2026-10-11 13:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 19:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 13:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 1.4112396904161815,
      "diversity": -0.18000000000000002
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6368845990531646
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "tits",
    "rank60": 212,
    "share15": 0.014248704663212436,
    "share60": 0.003474415666456096,
    "total15": 385,
    "total60": 1582,
    "momentum": 4.101036269430052,
    "diversity": 0.6,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 199,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9966077777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994346296296296
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6368845990531646
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 19:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.406
Log loss1.013
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.03406273258904838,
  "totalAfter": 12374,
  "shareBefore": 0.001123876123876124,
  "totalBefore": 8008,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 9
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 64% that "tits" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.11% → 0.00% (-100%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "tits" (6H). momentum contributed +1.41 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha760fcd0a4ad2c4486887024ead6954ee87429782b069897ca3034e9b5a80efc
Previous hash1ca08ca72fbf2b43deb4a61077b61dabf5d3cbc36aa8b463a4ee6d30375b70bb