Will "chimp" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 42% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

22 of 1582 launches in the last hour referenced "chimp" (4 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 1.55×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.22224068113863232,
      "momentum": 0.4377905447020775,
      "diversity": -0.6818181818181818
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4228966660210475
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "chimp",
    "rank60": 11,
    "share15": 0.022020725388601035,
    "share60": 0.014213518635502211,
    "total15": 385,
    "total60": 1582,
    "momentum": 1.5492803684513528,
    "diversity": 0.18181818181818182,
    "launches15": 8,
    "launches60": 22,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 199,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9966077777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998586574074074
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4228966660210475
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0017748421738446676,
  "shareRatio": 0.6278084897163209,
  "totalAfter": 44511,
  "shareBefore": 0.0028340345752218177,
  "totalBefore": 45871,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 79,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 130
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity