GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1615 · narrative · 6H

Will "doge" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 56% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

63 of 1441 launches in the last hour referenced "doge" (39 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 1.74×.

Made2026-10-11 14:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 20:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 13:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3800545220936148,
      "momentum": 0.5537566449477067,
      "diversity": -0.1571428571428571
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.560617326156323
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "doge",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.07661290322580645,
    "share60": 0.04403606102635229,
    "total15": 371,
    "total60": 1441,
    "momentum": 1.739776479552959,
    "diversity": 0.6190476190476191,
    "launches15": 28,
    "launches60": 63,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 39
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 196,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9940405555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990067592592593
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.560617326156323
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 20:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.193
Log loss0.579
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.020660837266888492,
  "shareRatio": 1.9690869337793055,
  "totalAfter": 12923,
  "shareBefore": 0.010451248001967294,
  "totalBefore": 8133,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 267,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 85
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 56% that "doge" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.05% → 2.07% (+98%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "doge" (6H). momentum contributed +0.55 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashabdf7bcdd7669ade575c21e4ad05e26dbca1c49b5d5570ada34c0579ca597b9f
Previous hasha1b9e5c1f69fc6c5c80048216c70add7fc50eaf07f9d0742a71ea0f58a28739d