Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 46% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

54 of 1492 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (38 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 0.86×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.35693192011952607,
      "momentum": -0.15075342737323222,
      "diversity": -0.05555555555555553
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4627250198289874
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.031395348837209305,
    "share60": 0.03650368385800402,
    "total15": 429,
    "total60": 1492,
    "momentum": 0.8600597397055687,
    "diversity": 0.7037037037037037,
    "launches15": 13,
    "launches60": 54,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 38
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 178,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9993580555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993580555555556
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4627250198289874
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.06059113300492611,
  "shareRatio": 1.639062992091057,
  "totalAfter": 2030,
  "shareBefore": 0.03678929765886288,
  "totalBefore": 1495,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 123,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 55
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity