Will "alpha" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 26% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

8 of 1492 launches in the last hour referenced "alpha" (6 distinct creators, rank #82). Last 15m momentum 0.20×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.07050054438686033,
      "momentum": -1.5884557552046337,
      "diversity": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.25750488410598876
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "alpha",
    "rank60": 82,
    "share15": 0.0011627906976744186,
    "share60": 0.0056932350971198925,
    "total15": 429,
    "total60": 1492,
    "momentum": 0.20424076607387143,
    "diversity": 0.75,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 8,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 178,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9993580555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999732523148148
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.25750488410598876
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0007928467603400431,
  "shareRatio": 0.4269005847953216,
  "totalAfter": 45406,
  "shareBefore": 0.001871999295247324,
  "totalBefore": 45406,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 36,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 85
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity