Ledger / Prediction #1642 · narrative · 1H

Will "money" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 20% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

68 of 1807 launches in the last hour referenced "money" (8 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.48×.

Made2026-10-11 15:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 16:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 14:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.391510468911301,
      "momentum": -0.7255406479690457,
      "diversity": -0.7588235294117647
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.19895256931803731
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "money",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.01833976833976834,
    "share60": 0.037887168141592924,
    "total15": 517,
    "total60": 1807,
    "momentum": 0.4840627906321337,
    "diversity": 0.11764705882352941,
    "launches15": 9,
    "launches60": 68,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 184,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9960452777777777,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9960452777777777
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.19895256931803731
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 16:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.040

Log loss0.222

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.02592780884595831,
  "shareRatio": 0.6945210966708207,
  "totalAfter": 1967,
  "shareBefore": 0.03742432581177765,
  "totalBefore": 1817,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 51,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 68
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 20% that "money" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.74% → 2.59% (-31%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "money" (1H). diversity contributed -0.76 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashaae033a04830fd886b3226dc300c20bc99e9a0566a263a2b33a7ca737614b826

Previous hashb38823377cea07273c43a76533aac90c9f70c46088c260bf61a11b086f2ae41e