Ledger / Prediction #1646 · narrative · 6H
Will "anti" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 53% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
67 of 1807 launches in the last hour referenced "anti" (41 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.47×.
Made2026-10-11 15:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 21:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 14:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3892882060435298,
"momentum": 0.38777778808875935,
"diversity": -0.1656716417910448
},
"rawProbability": 0.5319504169142122
},
"features": {
"term": "anti",
"rank60": 4,
"share15": 0.05501930501930502,
"share60": 0.03733407079646018,
"total15": 517,
"total60": 1807,
"momentum": 1.4737022737022736,
"diversity": 0.6119402985074627,
"launches15": 28,
"launches60": 67,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 41
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 184,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9960452777777777,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993408796296296
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5319504169142122
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 21:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.283
Log loss0.759
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0037929495760821064,
"shareRatio": 0.4280650764335947,
"totalAfter": 13446,
"shareBefore": 0.008890915308332383,
"totalBefore": 8773,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 51,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 78
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 53% that "anti" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.89% → 0.38% (-57%). INCORRECT.
— volume misled on "anti" (6H). volume contributed +0.39 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
5d6fcde7ab298a96570725ba48cf021090f6f7aaf61830a693ca802a2f605361Previous hash
cfb34171b19bb945aca7013aa39c7b5763bbc77ca7a9320be531b83fd0286c4b